Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:17:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2F 0x2f76…7bcc other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable P/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$4,136 (+17%) realized +$7,280 · open −$3,144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate55%18W / 15L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$612per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$94est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$8,885now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 251d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$2,291
world 22% +$2,809
economics 21% +$80
sports 10% +$376
other 8% +$105
tech 4% −$110
finance 0% −$1
culture 0% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 +0.5% -9.0% 50% 25% -14.3%
≤90d 18 +64.1% +48.5% 56% 28% +21.4%
all 33 +31.5% +19.0% 55% 27% +17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.0% 27% +17.4%
10% +7.6% 18% +6.2%
15% -2.8% 15% -4.1%
20% -12.3% 9% -13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +57% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$250 vs −$32 · ×7.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.95 per $1 lost it wins $9.95
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$8,885
Realized+$7,280
Unrealized−$3,144
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses18 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions7
Markets (closed)33 / 40
History coverage251d
Avg bet$612
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 50¢ 96¢ $2,500 $4,775 +$2,275 (+91%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 50¢ 92¢ $1,106 $2,023 +$918 (+83%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $801 $799 −$2 (-0%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $415 $452 +$37 (+9%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Yes 50¢ 4¢ $2,500 $225 −$2,275 (-91%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 8¢ $1,106 $188 −$918 (-83%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $158 $157 −$1 (-0%)
Will Arc launch a token by June 30 2026? No 87¢ 99¢ $103 $117 +$14 (+14%)
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? No 95¢ 95¢ $103 $103 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 11 $384 −$73 -19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 11 $569 −$38 -7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $87 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $595 −$22 -4%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 22? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? May 22 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,500 by end of June? May 22 $170 +$30 +17%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 22 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m May 07 $3,984 +$4 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 07 $1,005 +$5 +0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $36 −$10 -27%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 28 $1,831 +$459 +25%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $2,384 +$3,749 +157%
Will Trump say "Trump University" in April? Apr 07 $548 −$69 -12%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Apr 06 $193 −$1 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $36 −$6 -17%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + D66? Mar 26 $8 +$82 +1024%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 26 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 26 $53 +$20 +38%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$10B one day after launch? Jan 29 $106 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jan 29 $110 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $100 +$16 +16%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$14B one day after launch? Jan 29 $149 +$1 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 23 $600 $0 +0%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31? Dec 23 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 23 $25 +$75 +300%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 23 $133 +$55 +41%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 14 $28 −$4 -14%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66? Nov 09 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the next Dutch government be VVD + CDA + JA21 + D66? Nov 09 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 11 $63 −$63 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $821 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $162 1h
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $103 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 12¢ $262 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes 24¢ $531 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? SELL Yes 12¢ $48 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 14¢ $81 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 24¢ $16 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 14¢ $101 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 24¢ $181 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 78¢ $86 7d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 80¢ $9 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 25¢ $103 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $404 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 7d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 78¢ $60 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $6 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $1 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 78¢ $18 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $36 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $133 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,885.12 · official $8,885.12 (match) · 458 history records