Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:23:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f76…bccc weather 498 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$32 · open −$31
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate69%337W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day45.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$773now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$145
7 days−$144
14 days−$99
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$37
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 155 +0.2% -9.3% 95% 1% -11.6%
≤30d 488 -4.4% -13.5% 69% 4% -12.9%
≤90d 488 -4.4% -13.5% 69% 4% -12.9%
all 488 -4.4% -13.5% 69% 4% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.5% 4% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.8% 3% -21.2%
15% -29.3% 2% -28.8%
20% -36.3% 2% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 58% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$773
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses337 / 151
Open positions10
Markets (closed)488 / 498
History coverage27d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day45.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 488 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $155 $161 +$5 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? No 95¢ 97¢ $86 $88 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? No 98¢ 97¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? No 94¢ 96¢ $84 $86 +$2 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? No 97¢ 95¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18? No 92¢ 95¢ $83 $86 +$3 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 18? No 91¢ 83¢ $82 $75 −$7 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? No 93¢ 100¢ $61 $66 +$5 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18? No 97¢ 99¢ $39 $39 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? No 90¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $79 +$3 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $206 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $39 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $78 +$4 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $158 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $157 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $158 +$15 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? Jun 17 $315 −$315 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on June 16? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $157 +$8 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $157 +$13 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $232 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $157 +$6 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $81 +$7 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $132 +$5 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $65 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $158 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $157 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $158 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $155 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $132 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $158 +$5 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $156 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $157 +$12 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $153 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $156 +$14 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $157 −$11 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 15? Jun 16 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 15? Jun 16 $27 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 15? Jun 16 $27 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $27 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $75 −$24 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $36 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $0 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 7? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 9? Jun 15 $27 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 15 $33 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 98¢ $27 1m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 BUY No 96¢ $11 9m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 97¢ $87 9m
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $73 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 95¢ $86 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 94¢ $85 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 92¢ $83 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 91¢ $82 1h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $156 8h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $27 11h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $28 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $27 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $2 15h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $33 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $39 15h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $24 15h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $24 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $39 15h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $133 15h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $46 15h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $19 15h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $39 15h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $24 15h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $39 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $773.41 · official $773.41 (match) · 1578 history records