Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f70…deab other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate52%23W / 21L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% $0
other 28% +$12
politics 19% +$2
culture 6% $0
crypto 6% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)+5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 13 -4.5% -13.6% 31% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -4.5% -13.6% 31% 0% -9.5%
all 44 +16.1% +5.0% 52% 7% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.0% 7% -8.3%
10% -5.0% 5% -17.1%
15% -14.2% 2% -25.1%
20% -22.6% 2% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.48 per $1 lost it wins $10.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses23 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage448d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $45 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $11 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $34 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $77 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $1 −$1 -62%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $41 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 05 $41 $0 +1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Dec 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will Flamengo win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $2 $0 +6%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $31 +$1 +3%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 16 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 15 $30 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $3 $0 -7%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Apr 13 $27 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 12 $2 $0 +25%
Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Apr 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Apr 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Apr 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will Tom Kim win The 2025 Masters? Apr 08 $1 $0 +17%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $29 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 07 $2 +$12 +726%
Will Jimmy Patronis win by less than 20%? Apr 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? Apr 04 $29 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 04 $27 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 03 $1 $0 -12%
Will Crin Antonescu win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romania Apr 03 $28 $0 +1%
Will 1-2 justices on South Korea's Constitutional Court vote for Yoon' Apr 02 $20 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $22 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by March 31? Mar 31 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 31 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $45 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $45 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $45 7h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $45 10h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 94¢ $45 15h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $45 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 19h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $32 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $45 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $45 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 37h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $34 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $34 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $11 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $24 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $36 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes $0 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 13¢ $1 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $40 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $1 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $41 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $2 13d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 162 history records