Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2F 0x2f6b…2a84 crypto 192 markets active 11h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$411 (-5%) realized −$413 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%81W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$414
7 days−$449
14 days−$449
30 days−$449
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% −$451
crypto 30% −$203
other 19% −$262
finance 13% +$125
culture 2% +$156
politics 1% −$23
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +5.6% -4.5% 47% 47% -43.1%
≤30d 19 +5.6% -4.5% 47% 47% -43.1%
≤90d 42 +5.3% -4.7% 48% 45% +6.7%
all 191 -4.4% -13.5% 42% 41% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 41% -16.7%
10% -21.8% 39% -24.6%
15% -29.4% 37% -31.9%
20% -36.3% 33% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$40 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$413
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses81 / 110
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)191 / 192
History coverage118d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+175%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $254 −$250 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $214 +$48 +23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $240 −$200 -83%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 19 $56 +$72 +128%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $71 −$64 -90%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 18 $42 +$29 +70%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$25 +190%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $51 −$44 -86%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $61 −$60 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 18 $61 −$44 -72%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $58 +$42 +73%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$30 +77%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $3 +$13 +414%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$14 -66%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 07 $47 −$45 -97%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 07 $15 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 07 $81 −$45 -55%
Solana Up or Down - April 7, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 07 $54 +$27 +50%
LoL: French Flair vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Apr 07 $30 +$24 +79%
Counter-Strike: Chinggis Warriors vs FengDa Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challen Apr 07 $52 −$51 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 07 $33 −$18 -54%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 07 $140 +$344 +246%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group S Apr 07 $38 −$37 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Apr 07 $289 −$5 -2%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner Apr 07 $100 +$76 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $120 −$120 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 01 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 31 $30 −$29 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 31 $30 +$36 +120%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $38 −$35 -93%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 31 $40 +$54 +135%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $200 +$152 +76%
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31? Mar 31 $200 −$171 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 31 $50 +$58 +116%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 31 $459 +$817 +178%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 23 $5 +$6 +127%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B Mar 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by March 20? Mar 20 $40 −$40 -100%
76ers vs. Kings Mar 20 $18 +$5 +28%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TYLOO (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group A Mar 20 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 20 $37 −$37 -99%
Miami Open: Lulu Sun vs Taylor Townsend Mar 20 $30 +$20 +66%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Mar 19 $84 +$95 +113%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Mar 19 $39 +$46 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $20 10h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $254 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $263 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $214 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $96 12h
Morocco leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $128 12h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 43¢ $56 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $37 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 48¢ $203 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $71 36h
Canada leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $71 36h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $42 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $8 37h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 37h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $12 37h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 38h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 5¢ $7 39h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 39h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 39h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 34¢ $51 42h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 13¢ $17 42h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 43h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $36 43h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $100 43h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $23 46h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $35 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.75 · official $2.75 (match) · 336 history records