Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:03:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2f6b…ad9f sports 308 markets active 1d ago coverage 808d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$60 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate40%114W / 174L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$10
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% +$14
politics 23% −$3
crypto 13% −$11
economics 12% −$4
other 7% −$22
tech 5% −$3
culture 3% −$1
world 2% −$28
finance 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +15.4% +4.4% 52% 45% -11.5%
≤30d 91 +6.5% -3.6% 49% 41% -13.4%
≤90d 94 +8.2% -2.1% 51% 43% -6.5%
all 288 +2.6% -7.2% 40% 33% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 33% -9.7%
10% -16.0% 29% -18.3%
15% -24.1% 24% -26.2%
20% -31.6% 19% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

808d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$60
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses114 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions20
Markets (closed)288 / 308
History coverage808d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Yes 25¢ 36¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+47%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 68¢ 70¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 39¢ 44¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+10%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $6 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 74¢ 73¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? Yes 7¢ 12¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+79%)
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 9¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? No 12¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Will John Healey be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 33¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 79 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$3 -40%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $4 $0 +9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 15 $4 +$3 +84%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +49%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 14 $1 $0 +41%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $28 −$7 -25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $13 −$9 -66%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $35 +$6 +17%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $5 +$5 +91%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $4 +$6 +172%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$4 +72%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -25%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +14%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -14%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 +$4 +72%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6 +$13 +219%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +140%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $6 +$3 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 +$2 +44%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $7 +$3 +42%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 13 $19 +$2 +13%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 13 $3 $0 -3%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +42%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 13 $6 +$11 +177%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $15 −$2 -14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $28 −$2 -8%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -40%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $2 +$3 +121%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $9 $0 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -53%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 12 $6 +$9 +163%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $4 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25h
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $2 26h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $3 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 27h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 28h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 28h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 29h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 31h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 33h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 33h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $4 34h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $2 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 35h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 37h
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 37h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 39h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 39h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 64¢ $8 41h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 59¢ $3 42h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 42h
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? SELL No 60¢ $3 42h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.26 · official $66.76 (match) · 814 history records