Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:12:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f64…ba01
sports · 1114 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$956 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$893 · open −$64
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$131
Realized−$893
Unrealized−$64
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses406 / 695
Est. fees paid−$323
Open positions13
Markets (closed)1101 / 1114
History coverage503d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%
Chart Positions 13 History 1101 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days−$154
14 days−$10
30 days−$280
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner B8 39¢ 38¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 43¢ 32¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-27%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 B8 27¢ 56¢ $16 $34 +$18 (+109%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) TheMongolz 54¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
NBA Finals: Timothee Chalamet to attend all Knicks Home Games? No 5¢ 3¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-30%)
Will Karrigan retire by June 30? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-71%)
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs 6666 - Map 1 Winner 6666 29¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 2 Winner Gaming By Legends 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 1 Winner Atputies 21¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Saab - Map 2 Winner Saab 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Minkens finest - Map 2 Winner Minkens finest 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 106.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $59 $0 −$59 (-100%)
Luke Kennard: Assists O/U 2.5 Yes 59¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 B8 39¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner NEW VISION 24¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Atlanta Dream Phoenix Mercury 51¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 100.5 Over 58¢ 0¢ $67 $0 −$67 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage The Huns Esports 5¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Over 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Young Ninjas vs WAZABI - Map 2 Winner WAZABI 26¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5 Over 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Wildcard vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Playoffs FOKUS 46¢ 0¢ $42 $0 −$42 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 +$98 +194%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 08 $17 −$17 -98%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $38 −$8 -21%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 08 $36 −$2 -5%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $58 −$3 -5%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Banger Gang (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eu Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $21 −$21 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $33 +$27 +81%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $54 −$42 -77%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 06 $9 +$10 +106%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $32 −$20 -61%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $35 +$65 +188%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $31 −$27 -89%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 06 $29 +$34 +120%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $40 +$15 +37%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $38 +$7 +18%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 06 $53 −$52 -99%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $48 +$47 +98%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs Young Ninjas - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $21 +$16 +78%
Phoenix Mercury vs. PortlandFire Jun 06 $99 +$59 +60%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 06 $50 +$49 +100%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 1WIN - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $86 −$85 -98%
Counter-Strike: against All authority vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Clo Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 1WIN - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $53 +$47 +89%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division (BO3) - NODWIN Jun 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs against All authority (BO3) - European Pro Jun 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 06 $53 −$52 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs against All authority - Map 2 Winner Jun 06 $27 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs against All authority - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 Jun 06 $53 +$43 +80%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $47 +$67 +143%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 06 $30 +$24 +80%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 06 $20 −$20 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 Jun 06 $46 −$25 -54%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $35 −$35 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 214.5 Jun 06 $57 −$56 -99%
Dallas Wings vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 06 $54 −$54 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 110.5 Jun 06 $49 +$51 +104%
1H Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 06 $53 +$47 +89%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-6.5) Jun 06 $20 +$18 +88%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 06 $31 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $42 +$38 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 84% −$712
crypto 12% +$78
other 2% −$35
world 2% −$257
politics 0% −$81
economics 0% +$62
tech 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 0¢ $0 9m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 43¢ $51 10m
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) BUY TheMongolz 54¢ $5 12m
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 39¢ $51 15m
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL B8 99¢ $148 15m
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 27¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 33¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Minkens finest - Map 2 Winner BUY Minkens finest 6¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Saab - Map 2 Winner BUY Saab 6¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends - Map 2 Winner BUY Gaming By Legends 6¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: aimclub vs 6666 - Map 1 Winner BUY 6666 29¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 1 Winner BUY Atputies 11¢ $4 1h
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 1 Winner BUY Atputies 31¢ $11 1h
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 1 Winner BUY Atputies 31¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 1 Winner BUY Atputies 31¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Metizport vs Atputies - Map 1 Winner BUY Atputies 11¢ $1 1h
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics BUY Washington Mystics 34¢ $17 4d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY No 2¢ $2 4d
NBA Finals: Timothee Chalamet to attend all Knicks Home Games? BUY No 5¢ $5 4d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $4 4d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 41¢ $29 4d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1 4d
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $32 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 90¢ $34 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 94¢ $36 4d
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner BUY NEW VISION 21¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Banger Gang (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Eu BUY Banger Gang 29¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner SELL NEW VISION 64¢ $8 4d
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner SELL NEW VISION 65¢ $21 4d
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner SELL NEW VISION 64¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -19.9% -27.5% 38% 38% -19.9%
≤30d 155 -13.5% -21.7% 37% 37% -13.4%
≤90d 494 -19.1% -26.8% 38% 38% -16.8%
all 1101 -11.2% -19.7% 37% 36% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 36% -11.4%
10% -27.3% 35% -19.8%
15% -34.4% 34% -27.6%
20% -40.8% 32% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $131.44 · official $131.44 (match) · 2984 history records