Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:08:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f63…f247 other 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (296 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$45,092 (+15%) realized +$38,998 · open +$6,094
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate25%59W / 179L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,054per market
Trades / day295.7pace
Fees−$2,105est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$71,215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$16,348
sports 37% +$20,832
world 2% −$1,134
finance 0% −$256
crypto 0% +$5,227
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (296 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-34.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 197 -41.6% -47.2% 16% 10% -39.6%
≤30d 238 -28.1% -34.9% 25% 18% -22.7%
≤90d 238 -28.1% -34.9% 25% 18% -22.7%
all 238 -28.1% -34.9% 25% 18% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover295.7 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.9% 18% -22.7%
10% -41.2% 15% -30.1%
15% ← realistic here -46.9% 13% -36.8%
20% -52.1% 11% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,188) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
20.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,977 vs −$928 · ×2.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$71,215
Realized+$38,998
Unrealized+$6,094
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses59 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$2,105
Open positions61
Markets (closed)238 / 147
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$2,054
Trades / day295.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 61 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $10,819 $10,933 +$114 (+1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $7,777 $9,388 +$1,611 (+21%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? No 87¢ 97¢ $5,702 $6,356 +$654 (+11%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30? No 25¢ 38¢ $2,703 $4,152 +$1,448 (+54%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 59¢ 93¢ $2,528 $4,003 +$1,475 (+58%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $3,703 $3,994 +$291 (+8%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 89¢ 98¢ $3,329 $3,688 +$359 (+11%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? No 74¢ 91¢ $2,680 $3,276 +$596 (+22%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? No 63¢ 62¢ $2,761 $2,717 −$44 (-2%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? No 58¢ 91¢ $1,164 $1,818 +$654 (+56%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? No 52¢ 96¢ $954 $1,748 +$794 (+83%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? No 29¢ 22¢ $1,818 $1,369 −$450 (-25%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? No 76¢ 95¢ $1,039 $1,308 +$269 (+26%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $800B by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $1,136 $1,228 +$92 (+8%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $190B by June 30? No 84¢ 97¢ $997 $1,148 +$151 (+15%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,092 $1,098 +$6 (+1%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $850B by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $1,044 $1,080 +$36 (+3%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? No 18¢ 8¢ $2,313 $978 −$1,335 (-58%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $185B by June 30? No 62¢ 98¢ $573 $905 +$332 (+58%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $818 $895 +$76 (+9%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $649 $688 +$39 (+6%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? No 24¢ 22¢ $708 $656 −$52 (-7%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $210B by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $562 $616 +$54 (+10%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026? No 42¢ 48¢ $527 $604 +$77 (+15%)
Will ZywOo reach 36 HLTV MVP awards by December 31, 2026? No 49¢ 68¢ $416 $577 +$161 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 180 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May? Jun 17 $345 −$338 -98%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May? Jun 17 $12 −$111 -963%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs DetonatioN FocusMe (BO3) - LCP R Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playo Jun 17 $463 −$463 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $3,928 −$3,928 -100%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $271 −$271 -100%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Alliance (BO3) - Conquest of Prague Fina Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 17 $358 −$358 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $745 on May 11? Jun 17 $50 −$48 -97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 3? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 17 $703 −$703 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,400 by end of June? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +546%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Shopify Rebellion (BO3) - LCS Regular Season Jun 17 $1,935 −$1,935 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 17 $3,500 −$3,500 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? Jun 17 $560 −$560 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $184 −$185 -101%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in May? Jun 17 $2 +$823 +36574%
LoL: Bohemian Guardians vs BRUTE (BO3) - Hitpoint Masters Regular Seas Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? Jun 17 $116 −$116 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $613 −$613 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - BC Game Masters Jun 17 $412 −$412 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S Jun 17 $5,889 −$5,889 -100%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 17 $3,094 −$3,119 -101%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? Jun 17 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in May? Jun 17 $493 −$421 -85%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Jun 17 $1,344 −$1,344 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $232 in May? Jun 17 $18 −$489 -2661%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $88 in May? Jun 17 $3,593 −$3,686 -103%
Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026? Jun 17 $192 −$192 -100%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-01? Jun 17 $6,503 −$6,503 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro Jun 17 $1,056 −$1,056 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Jun 17 $244 −$244 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $927 −$893 -96%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 17 $5,738 −$5,738 -100%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Pl Jun 17 $885 −$2,228 -252%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 17 $226 −$220 -97%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 6? Jun 17 $658 −$658 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $567 −$567 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? Jun 17 $120 −$46 -38%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in May? Jun 17 $1,318 −$1,318 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11? Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? Jun 17 $376 −$321 -85%
Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $691 −$691 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2 54m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $71 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $19 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? SELL No 84¢ $2,800 1h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY No 99¢ $320 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $3,923 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $314 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71,214.71 · official $71,215.37 (match) · 3500 history records