Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:50:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f55…9c72 crypto 1212 markets active 2h ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$242 (-2%) realized −$242 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate78%939W / 272L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day44.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$84
14 days−$68
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$244
other 6% −$43
world 0% −$5
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -18.0% -25.8% 60% 60% -24.0%
≤30d 305 -6.8% -15.7% 55% 55% -18.2%
≤90d 1211 -3.8% -12.9% 78% 45% -12.2%
all 1211 -3.8% -12.9% 78% 45% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 45% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -21.3% 17% -20.6%
15% -28.9% 10% -28.3%
20% -35.9% 9% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$242
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses939 / 272
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1211 / 1212
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day44.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1211 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +13%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$2 +45%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +33%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$1 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +33%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +18%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +38%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +20%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +22%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +35%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$8 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $7 +$3 +34%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $9 +$1 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$2 +23%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$2 +28%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$2 +30%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $8 +$2 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $3 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 2d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.75 · official $1.75 (match) · 3500 history records