Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:06:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f53…d5ab sports 331 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$289 (+3%) realized +$277 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%145W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day22.5pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$93
7 days+$122
14 days−$827
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$128
other 1% −$22
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -15.6% -23.6% 40% 40% -4.2%
≤30d 328 -8.3% -17.1% 44% 44% -8.1%
≤90d 328 -8.3% -17.1% 44% 44% -8.1%
all 328 -8.3% -17.1% 44% 44% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 44% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 43% -16.9%
15% -32.3% 42% -25.0%
20% -38.9% 37% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$21 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized+$277
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses145 / 183
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions3
Markets (closed)328 / 331
History coverage30d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day22.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 328 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Gentle Mates 51¢ 50¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs HOTU 40¢ 42¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $6 $18 +$12 (+195%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 146 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $25 −$18 -71%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $11 +$9 +81%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $12 +$8 +65%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $35 +$35 +100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $19 +$31 +165%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 +$12 +165%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $17 +$13 +76%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $114 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $51 −$3 -6%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $16 −$3 -18%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) Jun 15 $33 −$4 -12%
Map Handicap: BBP (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) Jun 15 $36 +$14 +40%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 14 $33 −$33 -99%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $20 +$26 +128%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $129 +$70 +54%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $52 −$51 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $13 −$12 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $17 +$18 +109%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $27 +$28 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$17 +86%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$15 +61%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $19 +$26 +143%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $34 +$43 +128%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $61 +$41 +68%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $73 +$33 +46%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $15 +$15 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $13 +$17 +134%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $26 −$26 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $94 +$32 +34%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $52 +$33 +65%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $11 −$3 -24%
Counter-Strike: Gatorian vs Nexus (BO1) - ROG Journey Group B Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 38¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch BUY Gentle Mates 51¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Roar Gaming 18¢ $7 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Roar Gaming 18¢ $0 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 62¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 43¢ $9 4h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 55¢ $6 8h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 58¢ $6 8h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 62¢ $6 8h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 55¢ $6 8h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $20 13h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 16¢ $2 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $30 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 17¢ $7 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 37¢ $19 15h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 37¢ $8 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $17 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 35¢ $11 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $17 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 5¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 83¢ $186 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 49¢ $112 17h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 4¢ $10 18h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 24¢ $41 18h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 60¢ $46 18h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 63¢ $51 18h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut SELL CYBERSHOKE Esports 33¢ $8 19h
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (+1.5) SELL CYBERSHOKE Esports 59¢ $29 19h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut SELL CYBERSHOKE Esports 34¢ $5 19h
Map Handicap: BBP (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) SELL RUSTEC 100¢ $50 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.80 · official $70.80 · 708 history records