Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:43:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2F 0x2f50…a1c1 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 430d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,247 (+82%) realized +$935 · open +$312
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$743now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$95
14 days+$64
30 days+$527
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$851
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +45.4% +31.5% 55% 45% +14.9%
≤30d 17 +42.7% +29.1% 53% 47% +58.9%
≤90d 24 +28.8% +16.6% 54% 46% +43.2%
all 26 +18.9% +7.6% 50% 42% +40.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.6% 42% +40.2%
10% -2.7% 38% +26.8%
15% -12.1% 38% +14.5%
20% -20.7% 31% +3.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$11 · ×4.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.5 per $1 lost it wins $4.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

430d coverage
Net worth$743
Realized+$935
Unrealized+$312
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions9
Markets (closed)26 / 37
History coverage430d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 12¢ $54 $381 +$327 (+603%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $82 $87 +$5 (+6%)
Will Mirra Andreeva be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes $50 $82 +$32 (+65%)
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $103 $54 −$49 (-47%)
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $51 $49 −$2 (-3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $32 +$1 (+2%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $24 +$0 (+2%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $22 $24 +$1 (+6%)
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes $14 $10 −$4 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $113 +$4 +3%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Jun 27 $16 −$7 -42%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $21 −$11 -53%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $52 +$30 +58%
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 26 $28 +$94 +340%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $26 −$11 -43%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 23 $10 +$14 +140%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $6 +$13 +206%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $54 −$27 -51%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $26 −$21 -81%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $15 −$1 -8%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $26 −$11 -44%
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $103 +$107 +104%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $172 +$356 +206%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 03 $48 −$24 -49%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 03 $73 +$2 +2%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 01 $50 +$28 +56%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 29 $19 +$10 +51%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $17 +$2 +11%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $10 −$5 -53%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1600 and $1700 on Apr 25? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1500 and $1600 on Apr 25? Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 13¢ $137 1h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 13¢ $179 3h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 15¢ $55 3h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 4h
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 4h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $104 12h
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? SELL Yes $9 17h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes $21 18h
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 26h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 26h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $23 38h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $83 40h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $62 44h
Will Novak Djokovic be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 44h
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes $121 45h
Will Jack Draper be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $14 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 3d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Harry Kane: 2+ goals BUY 17¢ $9 4d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes $15 4d
Will Jakub Menšík be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes $4 4d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes $16 4d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $6 5d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $10 5d
Michael Olise: 1+ assists BUY Yes 41¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $27 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 39¢ $8 6d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $742.99 · official $743.14 (match) · 135 history records