Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:47:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f4e…1fb8
sports · 228 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$36 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,545 · open +$1,163
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$36,421
Realized−$1,545
Unrealized+$1,163
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses35 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$993
Open positions159
Markets (closed)92 / 228
History coverage1d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day2808.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 159 History 92 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,545
7 days−$1,545
14 days−$1,545
30 days−$1,545
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 88¢ 90¢ $4,955 $5,035 +$80 (+2%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 53¢ 56¢ $2,101 $2,254 +$153 (+7%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 85¢ 88¢ $1,826 $1,905 +$78 (+4%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 97¢ 99¢ $1,637 $1,681 +$43 (+3%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 81¢ 82¢ $1,600 $1,624 +$24 (+2%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Over 23¢ 47¢ $759 $1,543 +$784 (+103%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 80¢ 97¢ $1,130 $1,362 +$232 (+20%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 83¢ 99¢ $981 $1,168 +$187 (+19%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 89¢ 86¢ $1,160 $1,128 −$32 (-3%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 51¢ 54¢ $768 $800 +$32 (+4%)
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 73¢ 99¢ $412 $557 +$145 (+35%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5) Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ 96¢ $276 $554 +$277 (+100%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 61¢ 72¢ $435 $517 +$82 (+19%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Milwaukee Brewers 36¢ 96¢ $164 $435 +$272 (+166%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5 Over 67¢ 57¢ $468 $395 −$72 (-15%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Over 36¢ 28¢ $504 $393 −$110 (-22%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Seattle Mariners 72¢ 90¢ $298 $376 +$78 (+26%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Baltimore Orioles 83¢ 98¢ $300 $353 +$53 (+18%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 47¢ 46¢ $357 $352 −$5 (-2%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 41¢ 44¢ $324 $348 +$24 (+7%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 16¢ 18¢ $314 $344 +$30 (+10%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-3.5) New York Yankees 56¢ 86¢ $215 $328 +$113 (+52%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) New York Mets 66¢ 93¢ $220 $310 +$90 (+41%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 Over 57¢ 66¢ $259 $302 +$43 (+17%)
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Baltimore Orioles 65¢ 100¢ $192 $295 +$102 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CA Tigre vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia end in a draw? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +90%
Will Libya win on 2026-03-31? Jun 13 $4 −$9 -200%
Will Egypt win on 2026-03-30? Jun 13 $0 −$1 -200%
Will Liberia win on 2026-03-31? Jun 13 $0 $0 -203%
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-04-02? Jun 13 $1 −$3 -202%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $166 +$146 +88%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5) Jun 13 $122 −$122 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5) Jun 13 $78 −$67 -86%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 13 $133 −$123 -92%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $62 +$37 +59%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $3,020 −$228 -8%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $5 +$15 +285%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $49 +$2 +4%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $185 −$123 -67%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $51 −$49 -96%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $642 +$80 +12%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $75 +$244 +326%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $109 +$164 +151%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $310 −$81 -26%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $193 +$28 +15%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $113 −$107 -95%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $38 −$15 -40%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $146 +$53 +36%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $269 −$146 -54%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $299 −$239 -80%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $223 −$102 -46%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $60 −$59 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 13 $110 +$23 +21%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $308 −$289 -94%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $9 −$3 -32%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $12 +$3 +29%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $77 +$22 +28%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $380 −$379 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 13 $190 −$143 -75%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 13 $164 −$21 -13%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $9 −$1 -9%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 12 $46 −$21 -45%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 12 $32 −$24 -75%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 97% −$587
other 3% +$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $9 0m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) SELL San Diego Padres 32¢ $10 0m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 23¢ $47 0m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 23¢ $47 0m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 23¢ $47 0m
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 23¢ $47 0m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 61¢ $20 0m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 22¢ $7 0m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 60¢ $18 0m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 60¢ $30 0m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 23¢ $1 0m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 60¢ $11 0m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 SELL Under 59¢ $9 0m
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) SELL Seattle Mariners 88¢ $2 0m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 SELL Under 43¢ $21 0m
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 57¢ $28 0m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 24¢ $75 1m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 24¢ $1 1m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 58¢ $14 1m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 58¢ $29 1m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 58¢ $15 1m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 24¢ $14 1m
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays SELL New York Yankees 24¢ $12 1m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 58¢ $0 1m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 58¢ $29 1m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1 1m
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) SELL San Diego Padres 32¢ $1 1m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 58¢ $27 1m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 1m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +31.5% +19.0% 38% 30% -18.7%
≤30d 92 +31.5% +19.0% 38% 30% -18.7%
≤90d 92 +31.5% +19.0% 38% 30% -18.7%
all 92 +31.5% +19.0% 38% 30% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2808.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.0% 30% -18.7%
10% ← realistic here +7.6% 26% -26.5%
15% -2.8% 23% -33.6%
20% -12.4% 21% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36,420.90 · official $36,458.11 (match) · 3500 history records