Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
2F 0x2f4c…85a1 weather 158 markets active 3d ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-2%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate54%85W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$20
weather 38% −$7
sports 11% −$15
world 4% −$2
politics 2% −$16
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -7.4% -16.2% 43% 29% -24.2%
≤30d 52 +3.5% -6.4% 52% 46% -15.4%
≤90d 103 -1.0% -10.4% 58% 44% -10.1%
all 158 -4.9% -13.9% 54% 41% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 41% -12.1%
10% -22.2% 32% -20.5%
15% -29.7% 25% -28.2%
20% -36.6% 18% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses85 / 73
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)158 / 158
History coverage606d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 158 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 +$1 +247%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$6 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $24 −$4 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $0 $0 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 +$2 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $14 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +82%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$1 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on June Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $3 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 +$5 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 3? Jun 03 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $0 +$1 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $2 +$1 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 22? May 22 $1 $0 -25%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 22? May 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 21? May 21 $4 +$2 +38%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 21? May 21 $4 −$2 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on May 20? May 20 $3 +$1 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 20? May 20 $4 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 20? May 20 $4 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 20? May 20 $0 $0 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? SELL No 91¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? SELL No 94¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 22¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? SELL No 21¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 407 history records