Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2f47…54b0 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate48%19W / 21L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% +$2
other 29% +$5
politics 10% $0
crypto 3% $0
economics 2% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 36% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 36% 0% -9.3%
all 40 +0.9% -8.7% 48% 2% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 2% -8.7%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.4%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.4%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.05 per $1 lost it wins $5.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses19 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage466d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 93¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $36 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $35 +$2 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $38 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $34 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $73 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $74 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $3 $0 -9%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Dec 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 15 $4 $0 +5%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 29 $12 +$1 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win by over 23%? Jun 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $25 +$4 +17%
Will the Giants draft Travis Hunter? Apr 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Silviu Predoiu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100k in April? Apr 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 10 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? Apr 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 02 $14 $0 +2%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Mar 31 $15 $0 +0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 31 $13 +$1 +4%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 48°F or below on March 25? Mar 26 $15 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Mar 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 24 $15 $0 +1%
Will a #1 seed lose in the first round of NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $40 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $40 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $39 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $30 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $6 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $36 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 78¢ $37 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $35 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $13 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $13 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $9 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $2 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $15 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $18 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $32 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $32 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $39 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $38 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $13 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $18 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $31 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 12d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $38 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.28 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records