Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:44:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
2F 0x2f46…6c02 other 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,202 (+1%) realized +$1,203 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate22%36W / 127L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$908per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$379now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$14
14 days−$179
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$576
politics 37% −$67
sports 11% +$1,751
world 3% +$8
culture 3% −$5
economics 2% +$3
crypto 2% +$37
finance 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 35 -11.5% -20.0% 6% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 97 -1.6% -11.0% 9% 6% -8.3%
all 163 -0.4% -9.9% 22% 13% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 13% -8.8%
10% -18.5% 13% -17.5%
15% -26.4% 12% -25.5%
20% -33.6% 9% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$1,293) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$13 · ×6.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$379
Realized+$1,203
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses36 / 127
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage158d
Avg bet$908
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $380 $379 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $793 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $3,839 −$4 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $813 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $2,955 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $811 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $3,475 −$4 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $1,364 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,734 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,574 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $909 −$1 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $82 −$82 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,855 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,028 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $710 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 01 $185 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 01 $324 +$1 +0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $322 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $344 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $209 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,138 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,334 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $2,822 −$3 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,681 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $738 −$1 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $758 −$1 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $874 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 10 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $714 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $816 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $705 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $634 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,943 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,804 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $747 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $713 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $714 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $868 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $870 3h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $792 42h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $793 44h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $810 44h
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $811 46h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $812 46h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $813 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $882 3d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $883 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $968 4d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $969 4d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $380 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $891 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $893 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $810 7d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $811 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,270 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,272 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $710 8d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $711 8d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,362 8d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,364 8d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,035 9d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,036 9d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $697 9d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $698 9d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,261 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,262 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $378.91 · official $378.91 (match) · 504 history records