Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:22:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f45…8fb9 crypto 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$366 (-11%) realized −$366 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%25W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$79
14 days−$79
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$60
world 35% −$441
other 4% −$16
sports 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -13.2% -21.5% 40% 40% -13.3%
≤30d 63 -7.8% -16.6% 40% 40% -12.4%
≤90d 68 -12.4% -20.8% 37% 37% -15.1%
all 70 -13.1% -21.4% 36% 36% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 36% -24.3%
10% -28.9% 34% -31.5%
15% -35.8% 30% -38.1%
20% -42.1% 29% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$29 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$366
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses25 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage129d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $43 +$54 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $54 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $43 −$20 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $55 +$43 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $44 +$35 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $39 +$22 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$11 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $56 +$56 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $18 +$28 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $45 −$42 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 17 $72 +$25 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$28 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $64 +$21 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$13 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $55 +$50 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $62 +$54 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$59 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $57 +$42 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$42 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$35 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$44 +214%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $13 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $31 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $6 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $27 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $27 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $7 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $27 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $97 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $16 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $27 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $27 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $54 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $27 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $23 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $16 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $27 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $8 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $27 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $98 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $79 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $14 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 313 history records