Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:37:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
2F 0x2f43…8be2 politics 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,599 (+1%) realized +$1,600 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%29W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$1,381per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$665now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$19
30 days−$200
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$1,258
politics 36% −$88
sports 16% +$407
world 2% −$3
tech 1% +$3
finance 1% −$2
culture 1% −$2
economics 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 31 -6.5% -15.4% 6% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 82 -2.6% -11.9% 6% 1% -8.9%
all 152 +2.2% -7.6% 19% 13% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 13% -8.9%
10% -16.4% 13% -17.6%
15% -24.5% 12% -25.5%
20% -31.9% 10% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,642) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$12 · ×8.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.04 per $1 lost it wins $2.04
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$665
Realized+$1,600
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses29 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)152 / 154
History coverage137d
Avg bet$1,381
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $415 $413 −$1 (-0%)
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $251 $251 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $262 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $324 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 25 $246 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 25 $243 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 24 $212 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $352 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $4,398 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $3,031 −$4 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $2,712 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $5,228 −$5 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 14 $425 +$5 +1%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3,226 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $3,689 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,473 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,539 −$2 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 08 $1,243 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $3,616 −$5 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,641 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $86 −$86 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,124 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1,248 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $3,934 −$4 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? Jun 02 $922 +$1 +0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $1,074 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $411 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,704 −$4 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,686 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,633 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $1,642 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $3,007 −$3 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,664 −$3 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $5,590 −$6 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $1,698 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 22 $1,656 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,916 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $1,066 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $1,443 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 19 $770 +$1,495 +194%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $3,509 −$4 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $6,280 −$7 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $1,487 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,326 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $252 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $262 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $262 5h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $415 23h
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $324 2d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $324 3d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $245 3d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $246 4d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $242 4d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $243 4d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $212 5d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $212 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $412 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $413 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $352 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $353 7d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $351 8d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $352 9d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $365 9d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $365 10d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $350 11d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $350 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $342 11d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $343 11d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,352 12d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,353 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,485 13d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,487 13d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,268 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,269 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $664.82 · official $664.82 (match) · 505 history records