Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:01:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2F 0x2f3e…bb7a crypto 962 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 108d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,130 (-26%) realized −$4,129 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate66%630W / 330L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day26.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 109d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$1,653
sports 3% −$213
other 2% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +32.3% +19.7% 100% 100% +19.7%
≤30d 34 -23.0% -30.3% 56% 35% -17.5%
≤90d 285 -26.4% -33.4% 48% 26% -29.4%
all 960 -12.5% -20.8% 66% 31% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.8% 31% -20.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.4% 16% -27.9%
15% -35.3% 11% -34.8%
20% -41.6% 7% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$15 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$4,129
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses630 / 330
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)960 / 962
History coverage109d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day26.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 960 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $126 $125 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 67 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $96 +$31 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $32 −$31 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 02 $72 −$15 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 02 $4 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 02 $14 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 02 $12 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 02 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 02 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 02 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 02 $18 −$10 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 02 $4 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 02 $4 −$3 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 02 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 02 $3 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 02 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 02 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Apr 18 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 18 $36 −$17 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 18 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 18 $41 +$26 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Apr 18 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Apr 18 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 14 $71 −$45 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 14 $20 −$8 -39%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 13 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 13 $151 −$38 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $127 32m
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 75¢ $96 1h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? AN BUY 39¢ $73 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 13d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $32 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $6 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $17 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $24 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $17 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $2 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $24 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $3 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $23 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.89 · official $124.89 (match) · 3500 history records