trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +23.5% | +11.8% | 100% | 100% | +11.8% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +23.5% | +11.8% | 100% | 100% | +11.8% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +23.5% | +11.8% | 100% | 100% | +11.8% |
| all | 16 | -19.4% | -27.1% | 69% | 12% | -2.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -27.1% | 12% | -2.7% |
| 10% | -34.1% | 6% | -12.0% |
| 15% | -40.4% | 0% | -20.5% |
| 20% | -46.3% | 0% | -28.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Yes | 91¢ | 92¢ | $50 | $50 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-25? | Yes | 51¢ | 50¢ | $50 | $50 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? | Yes | 80¢ | 80¢ | $7 | $7 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 22 | $101 | +$24 | +24% |
| OpenAI becomes a for-profit before April 2025? | Feb 03 | $1 | −$1 | -82% |
| Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? | Jan 24 | $10 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Union win the most seats in the next German election? | Jan 18 | $20 | −$1 | -4% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? | Jan 18 | $1 | $0 | +20% |
| Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2025? | Jan 18 | $10 | +$1 | +7% |
| Was the Cybertruck bombing a lone wolf attack? | Jan 14 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon be worth $500b by Trump inauguration? | Jan 14 | $10 | +$1 | +6% |
| 2024 December hottest on record? | Jan 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Jan 04 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? | Jan 04 | $10 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 11 | Jan 04 | $10 | +$1 | +7% |
| Ethereum above $3,300 on January 3? | Jan 04 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Jan 03 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Dec 27 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by Sunday? | Dec 27 | $5 | $0 | +2% |