Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:31:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f3c…c98c sports 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$101 (-5%) realized −$102 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%35W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$91
14 days−$64
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$102
other 11% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -18.9% -26.7% 44% 44% -16.3%
≤30d 73 -16.0% -24.0% 48% 48% -16.8%
≤90d 73 -16.0% -24.0% 48% 48% -16.8%
all 73 -16.0% -24.0% 48% 48% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 48% -16.8%
10% -31.2% 47% -24.8%
15% -37.9% 41% -32.0%
20% -44.0% 32% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$19 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses35 / 38
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage27d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 59¢ 60¢ $116 $117 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $51 −$12 -23%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $36 −$36 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $41 +$33 +82%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $56 +$25 +45%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $81 +$38 +47%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $51 +$33 +66%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $61 −$4 -6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $50 +$28 +55%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $61 +$29 +48%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $61 −$48 -78%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $41 +$25 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $51 +$41 +81%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $71 +$47 +66%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $71 +$36 +51%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $41 +$37 +91%
Map Handicap: MOUZ (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $77 −$44 -57%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $30 +$17 +55%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 11 $25 +$21 +84%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $20 +$15 +71%
Set 1 Winner: Struff vs Bublik Jun 11 $25 +$14 +54%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BetBoom Team (-3.5) vs M80 (+3.5) Jun 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $30 +$17 +56%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Matteo Arnaldi vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $41 −$10 -24%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 05 $36 +$21 +60%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $25 +$15 +58%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $31 +$19 +64%
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 04 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 04 $26 −$19 -72%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $83 −$32 -38%
Matteo Berrettini vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $25 −$7 -27%
Set Handicap: Kalinskaya (-1.5) vs Chwalinska (+1.5) Jun 03 $41 +$21 +52%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
World Championships: Switzerland vs. Finland Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 56¢ $39 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $51 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $118 4h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $41 9h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 27¢ $36 9h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $51 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $56 25h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $81 31h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $84 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 45¢ $57 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $61 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $51 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 55¢ $51 2d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $90 2d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 66¢ $61 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Over 13¢ $13 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $65 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 61¢ $41 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $61 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $92 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $51 3d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $118 4d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $71 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $107 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 65¢ $71 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $78 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.98 · official $116.98 (match) · 157 history records