Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:59:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f3c…3203 sports 353 markets active 2d ago coverage 692d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$180 (-6%) realized −$156 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%162W / 183L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days+$13
30 days+$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$104
other 21% −$96
crypto 18% −$187
politics 9% +$30
world 2% −$34
economics 1% +$17
tech 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -46.2% -51.3% 0% 0% -24.8%
≤30d 9 +37.4% +24.3% 67% 56% +16.9%
≤90d 45 -63.4% -66.9% 18% 16% -77.7%
all 345 -0.6% -10.1% 47% 46% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 46% -14.8%
10% -18.7% 44% -22.9%
15% -26.5% 40% -30.4%
20% -33.7% 36% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -75% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$7 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

692d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$156
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses162 / 183
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)345 / 353
History coverage692d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? No 22¢ 28¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+28%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $40 $19 −$21 (-54%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 69¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -88%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $29 −$1 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 09 $6 +$4 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 06 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 06 $6 +$9 +155%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $15 +$1 +7%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 23 $10 +$12 +114%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $6 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $2 +$2 +119%
Lions vs. Chiefs Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 26 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 26 $80 −$80 -100%
Patriots vs. Broncos Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Procházka vs. Rountree Jr. Apr 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Chiefs vs. Chargers Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) Apr 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Bills vs. Texans Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Ravens vs. Packers Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Jazz vs. Lakers Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6AM ET Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Jets vs. Patriots Apr 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Vikings vs. Chargers Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bulls vs. Magic Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bears vs. 49ers Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 26 $1 +$1 +89%
Ravens vs. Dolphins Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Nuggets vs. Kings Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Vikings vs. Steelers Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Pafos FC win on 2025-09-17? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Magic vs. Warriors Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Mar 21 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC 322: Shevchenko vs. Weili (Women's Flyweight, Main Card) Mar 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Mar 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-12-14? Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Patriots vs. Dolphins Mar 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 10 $53 +$55 +103%
Spread: Seahawks (-3.5) Jan 26 $5 +$7 +144%
Rams vs. Bears: O/U 48.5 Jan 22 $5 +$4 +72%
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5) Jan 18 $4 +$6 +122%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 41h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 3d
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 3d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 5d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 5d
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $27 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 BUY Over 58¢ $6 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 BUY Under 49¢ $5 12d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Knicks 38¢ $6 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 31¢ $5 18d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 93¢ $15 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 55¢ $6 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 30d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 28¢ $29 37d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 37d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 29¢ $5 38d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 45¢ $2 48d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 83d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $40 87d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 6AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $3 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 127d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 127d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 22¢ $20 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.33 · official $116.34 (match) · 786 history records