Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:15:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
2F 0x2f3a…f695 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1
politics 31% −$1
sports 6% $0
economics 6% $0
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
all 16 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage108d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $116 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $118 −$1 -1%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 28 $118 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $118 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $118 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $118 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $119 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $120 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $120 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $120 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $98 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $120 $0 -0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $120 $0 +0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 13 $120 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Mar 10 $120 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $116 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $116 13h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $116 3d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $118 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $118 13d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $118 14d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $118 29d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $118 30d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $118 35d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $118 36d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $118 42d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $118 42d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $118 45d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $118 46d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $118 50d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $119 51d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $120 71d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $120 72d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $120 75d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $120 75d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $120 78d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $120 78d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $98 81d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $55 81d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $2 81d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $40 81d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $120 93d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 93d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $120 101d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $120 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records