Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f39…5669 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-7%) realized −$2 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%7W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days+$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$2
tech 13% −$8
crypto 9% −$5
sports 3% +$3
world 3% −$2
politics 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +23.0% +11.3% 20% 20% -6.3%
≤30d 34 +11.2% +0.6% 18% 18% -21.9%
≤90d 34 +11.2% +0.6% 18% 18% -21.9%
all 35 +14.3% +3.4% 20% 20% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 20% -17.7%
10% -6.5% 20% -25.6%
15% -15.5% 20% -32.8%
20% -23.8% 20% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +106% → late -73% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×3.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses7 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage94d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 +$7 +340%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -48%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +144%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$13 +1290%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +276%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$4 +732%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $4 +$6 +158%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $1 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 17 $2 +$2 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 34m
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 12h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 18h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 18h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 25¢ $2 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 22h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 24h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 37h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 37h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 46h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.18 · official $0.18 (match) · 91 history records