Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:31:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f37…e169 crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-1%) realized −$18 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate85%33W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$179now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$80
other 33% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -5.0% -14.0% 85% 49% -14.9%
≤30d 39 -5.0% -14.0% 85% 49% -14.9%
≤90d 39 -5.0% -14.0% 85% 49% -14.9%
all 39 -5.0% -14.0% 85% 49% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 49% -14.9%
10% -22.3% 0% -23.0%
15% -29.8% 0% -30.5%
20% -36.6% 0% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$29 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$179
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses33 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage5d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $181 $179 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $17 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $48 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $42 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $23 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $42 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 23 $41 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 22 $19 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $23 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $35 −$35 -100%
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Jun 21 $245 +$13 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 20 $45 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 20 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 20 $35 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 19 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 19 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $31 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $21 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $24 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $24 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $21 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $22 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $23 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $13 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $22 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $21 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $19 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $22 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $179.30 · official $179.30 (match) · 108 history records