Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:36:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

2F 0x2f32…0859 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 52d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$172 (+42%) realized +$171 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip

Net edge+24%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown13%max

Avg bet$83per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit20%portable

Net worth$138now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+24.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+37.4%	+24.3%	75%	75%	+40.7%
≤30d	4	+37.4%	+24.3%	75%	75%	+40.7%
≤90d	4	+37.4%	+24.3%	75%	75%	+40.7%
all	4	+37.4%	+24.3%	75%	75%	+40.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+24.3%	75%	+40.7%
10%	+12.4%	75%	+27.2%
15%	+1.5%	75%	+14.9%
20%	-8.4%	25%	+3.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 75% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +56% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +37% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$56 vs −$19 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×8.84 per $1 lost it wins $8.84

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage

Net worth$138

Realized+$171

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage52d

Avg bet$83

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown13%

Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	47¢	48¢	$137	$138	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$100	+$45	+45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$100	+$42	+42%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?	Jun 14	$19	−$19	-100%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$50	+$81	+162%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$145	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$145	1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$100	17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$142	43h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	64¢	$100	46h
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Knicks	36¢	$50	5d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?	BUY Yes	35¢	$19	52d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $138.46 · official $138.46 (match) · 9 history records