Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f31…e2b6 sports 753 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 75d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,135 (+5%) realized +$1,161 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%409W / 343L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day34.0pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$164
14 days+$164
30 days+$164
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$223
other 45% −$580
crypto 6% +$73
politics 1% +$58
world 0% +$32
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -17.3% -25.2% 65% 40% -5.9%
≤30d 40 -17.3% -25.2% 65% 40% -5.9%
≤90d 752 +1.5% -8.1% 54% 50% -10.2%
all 752 +1.5% -8.1% 54% 50% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 50% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 43% -18.8%
15% -24.9% 36% -26.7%
20% -32.3% 31% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$16 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$1,161
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses409 / 343
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions1
Markets (closed)752 / 753
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 752 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots Yes 75¢ 38¢ $52 $26 −$26 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) Jun 22 $84 +$16 +20%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $46 +$4 +9%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $76 +$24 +32%
Chemsdine Talbi: 1+ assists Jun 20 $9 +$1 +6%
Ché Adams: 1+ goals Jun 20 $212 +$37 +18%
Ché Adams: 1+ assists Jun 20 $34 +$2 +7%
Lawrence Shankland: 3+ shots Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots Jun 19 $22 +$3 +16%
Weston McKennie: 1+ shots Jun 19 $219 +$12 +5%
Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals Jun 19 $220 +$30 +14%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 19 $150 +$100 +67%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $142 +$58 +41%
Breel Embolo: 3+ shots Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 19 $85 −$85 -100%
Tajon Buchanan: 2+ shots Jun 19 $66 +$49 +74%
Cyle Larin: 2+ shots Jun 19 $36 +$13 +35%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $235 +$15 +6%
Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots Jun 18 $39 +$44 +114%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 18 $501 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $296 +$9 +3%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 18 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$30 +30%
Edin Džeko: 1+ goals Jun 18 $321 +$66 +21%
Oswin Appollis: 2+ shots Jun 18 $93 +$57 +62%
Adam Hložek: 2+ shots Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-04-26? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Levante UD: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-04-26? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 18 $7 −$2 -33%
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-04-26? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-26? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Kolkata Knight Riders Jun 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Ladislav Krejčí: 1+ goals Jun 18 $167 +$23 +14%
Oswin Appollis: 1+ goals Jun 18 $93 +$16 +17%
Tomáš Souček: 1+ goals Jun 18 $86 +$14 +16%
Patrik Schick: 1+ goals Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? Apr 30 $2 $0 -11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 30 $29 +$1 +4%
Will Hull City AFC win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $8 $0 -2%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $934 −$515 -55%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 30 $23 +$12 +54%
Madrid Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Luciano Darderi Apr 27 $3 +$2 +56%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $14 +$3 +22%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Emilio Nava Apr 26 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1 +$1 +113%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $4 +$6 +178%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Antonio Nusa: 1+ shots BUY Yes 75¢ $53 1h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 83¢ $42 13h
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 84¢ $42 13h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 76¢ $76 16h
Ché Adams: 1+ goals BUY No 85¢ $149 2d
Lawrence Shankland: 3+ shots BUY No 98¢ $39 2d
Ché Adams: 1+ goals BUY No 85¢ $11 2d
Ché Adams: 1+ goals BUY No 85¢ $52 2d
Chemsdine Talbi: 1+ assists BUY No 94¢ $9 2d
Ché Adams: 1+ assists BUY No 93¢ $34 2d
Weston McKennie: 1+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $192 2d
Weston McKennie: 1+ shots BUY Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $50 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $8 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $30 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $3 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $29 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $3 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $15 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY No 60¢ $12 2d
Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals BUY No 88¢ $220 2d
Weston McKennie: 1+ shots BUY Yes 67¢ $20 2d
Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots BUY Yes 86¢ $22 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 94¢ $235 3d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 71¢ $142 3d
Jonathan David: 2+ goals BUY No 85¢ $85 3d
Tajon Buchanan: 2+ shots BUY Yes 57¢ $66 3d
Cyle Larin: 2+ shots BUY Yes 74¢ $36 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $501 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.25 · official $26.25 (match) · 3500 history records