Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:08:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2f31…7a43 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$36 (+6%) realized +$11 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$225now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$61
sports 15% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +39.6% +26.3% 50% 38% -0.2%
≤30d 8 +39.6% +26.3% 50% 38% -0.2%
≤90d 8 +39.6% +26.3% 50% 38% -0.2%
all 8 +39.6% +26.3% 50% 38% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.3% 38% -0.2%
10% +14.2% 25% -9.8%
15% +3.2% 25% -18.5%
20% -6.9% 12% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$12 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$225
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)8 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $100 $121 +$21 (+21%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 45¢ 54¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 52¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $151 +$29 +19%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$33 +650%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$24 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 56m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $10 57m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 45¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Algeria? BUY No 100¢ $100 4h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-2.5) AND Spread: Austria BUY 10¢ $15 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.95 · official $224.95 (match) · 19 history records