Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:50:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f2c…bc2f world 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$368 (-20%) realized −$359 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate22%11W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$396
other 13% −$118
finance 7% −$4
politics 3% +$135
economics 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -83.3% -84.9% 0% 0% -78.6%
≤90d 17 +14.0% +3.1% 29% 29% -29.9%
all 51 -23.5% -30.7% 22% 16% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 16% -28.5%
10% -37.4% 14% -35.3%
15% -43.4% 12% -41.6%
20% -49.0% 12% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$26 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$359
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses11 / 40
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage320d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $35 $26 −$9 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $9 −$4 -50%
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -96%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Will 10-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 Apr 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 15 $200 +$104 +52%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 12 $10 −$10 -100%
US recession by end of 2026? Apr 12 $12 −$2 -17%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 11 $220 +$125 +57%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? Apr 08 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $20 +$194 +969%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $20 +$20 +99%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 24 $218 −$200 -92%
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31? Mar 21 $20 +$6 +29%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Mar 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 19 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31? Mar 18 $120 +$7 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 17 $20 −$10 -50%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? Mar 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack? Mar 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Mar 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on March 20, 2026? Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on March 19, 2026? Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time? Aug 31 $5 −$2 -37%
John Bolton federally charged by October 31? Aug 31 $5 −$3 -59%
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee in 2025? Aug 31 $10 −$3 -33%
Will Trump try to fire Powell in 2025? Aug 31 $10 −$3 -29%
Trump announces Lisa Cook replacement by August 31? Aug 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump try to fire another Fed Governor by October 31? Aug 26 $5 $0 +9%
50% India tariff in effect by August 27? Aug 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sydney Sweeney issue a statement about the American Eagle commerc Aug 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Melania Trump sue Hunter Biden by August 31? Aug 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will India agree to stop buying Russian oil by August 31? Aug 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Russia announces air truce by August 31? Aug 22 $5 −$5 -100%
India agrees to reduce purchases Russian oil by August 31? Aug 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by August 31? Aug 22 $22 +$162 +734%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Aug 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Aug 14 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 14 $5 $0 -5%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? Aug 09 $3 +$4 +134%
Will Trump say "Nuclear weapon" this week? Aug 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Maxwell" this week? Aug 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ghislaine Maxwell cut a deal with the Feds by August 31? Aug 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in August? Aug 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 8¢ $35 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 6¢ $16 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 0¢ $4 16d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 16d
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 17d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 4¢ $10 17d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 57d
Will 10-19 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 1 BUY Yes 4¢ $100 61d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in Ap BUY Yes 8¢ $100 63d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $304 63d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 66d
US recession by end of 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 66d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $200 67d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 1¢ $100 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 1¢ $50 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 1¢ $40 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $10 70d
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on April 9, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $100 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 0¢ $10 70d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 96¢ $214 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL Yes 95¢ $40 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 96¢ $345 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 73d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 73d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? SELL No 60¢ $17 85d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 85d
US recession by end of 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $12 85d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY No 62¢ $18 85d
Will Iran strike Dimona by March 31? SELL Yes 9¢ $26 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.71 · official $25.71 (match) · 87 history records