Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
2F 0x2f2b…e9eb politics 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% −$12
world 9% −$1
tech 8% −$1
other 2% $0
sports 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$689) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage89d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Jun 26 $46 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,086 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $1,051 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $1,080 −$2 -0%
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 26 $91 $0 -0%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? May 26 $43 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 26 $26 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $711 −$1 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 23 $676 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $48 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 23 $708 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $689 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior finish in second place in the first r May 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will New York Jets win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? May 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election? May 22 $38 $0 -1%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $702 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $109 $0 -0%
Will Paula Badosa be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Apr 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $24 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 02 $114 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 29 $18 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $44 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 29 $29 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? SELL No 99¢ $46 20m
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $1,083 27m
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? BUY No 99¢ $13 35m
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $1,044 44m
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? BUY No 99¢ $18 52m
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,049 58m
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $14 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,022 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $827 1h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $28 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $251 1h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,080 2h
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $91 31d
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $77 31d
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $43 31d
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $15 31d
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 31d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $14 31d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $12 31d
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $19 31d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $26 31d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $51 33d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $658 33d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $21 33d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $648 33d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $16 33d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $709 33d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $14 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records