Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f2b…177b crypto 54 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$125 (-22%) realized −$125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate33%18W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$29
14 days−$29
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -10.9% -19.4% 33% 33% -33.7%
≤30d 22 -16.4% -24.4% 27% 27% -41.0%
≤90d 54 -28.1% -35.0% 33% 28% -36.0%
all 54 -28.1% -35.0% 33% 28% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 28% -36.0%
10% -41.2% 19% -42.1%
15% -46.9% 19% -47.7%
20% -52.1% 15% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses18 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)54 / 54
History coverage43d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 54 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 26 $15 +$17 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$5 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 26 $8 +$26 +314%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 31 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 29 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 29 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 29 $6 +$17 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 29 $30 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 29 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 29 $4 +$3 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 29 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 29 $21 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 29 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 26 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET May 20 $10 −$4 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 20 $42 −$16 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 20 $20 +$14 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 20 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 20 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 20 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 20 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 20 $15 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 20 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 20 $66 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 20 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 20 $15 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 20 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 20 $13 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 20 $10 −$4 -43%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 20 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 15 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 15 $13 −$7 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 15 $2 +$3 +120%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $8 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $20 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $21 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $6 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $21 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $27 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $9 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $7 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 28d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records