Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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2F 0x2f2b…d743 sports 1542 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 161d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,085 (-5%) realized −$3,076 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate22%338W / 1201L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$898est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days−$1,237
14 days−$2,536
30 days−$3,573
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$2,755
crypto 12% −$1,044
other 2% −$165
economics 1% −$318
world 0% −$7
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -52.2% -56.7% 13% 13% -58.9%
≤30d 222 -32.9% -39.3% 17% 16% -43.8%
≤90d 1317 -47.8% -52.8% 17% 16% -23.7%
all 1539 -33.4% -39.7% 22% 20% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.7% 20% -18.8%
10% -45.5% 20% -26.5%
15% -50.7% 19% -33.6%
20% -55.6% 18% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$30 · ×3.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$3,076
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses338 / 1201
Est. fees paid−$898
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1539 / 1542
History coverage161d ⚠
Avg bet$37
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1539 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? No 2¢ 1¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? No 6¢ 4¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $69 +$250 +360%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$15 -72%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $50 −$34 -67%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$94 +185%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$81 +158%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$91 +442%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19 +$21 +110%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -69%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 16 $26 −$21 -82%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$2 -5%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $97 −$97 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Audax CS Italiano vs. CD La Serena: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $72 −$72 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $53 −$53 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $61 +$71 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 6¢ $17 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 1.5 BUY Over 28¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $320 1h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 21¢ $69 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $21 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Over 11¢ $1 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $1 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $57 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $21 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $21 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $15 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $11 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 1¢ $11 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 13h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 4¢ $21 16h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $31 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $140 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 28¢ $5 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $51 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $51 25h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $111 25h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $20 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 33¢ $41 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 15¢ $19 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $5 26h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL No 0¢ $14 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.37 · official $127.40 (match) · 3430 history records