Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:58:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f2a…9c0a sports 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 623d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$25,087 (-26%) realized −$25,062 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%26W / 40L
Whale WR35%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,433per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$1,131est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$475now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$213
7 days+$213
14 days+$213
30 days+$807
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$20,670
crypto 6% −$5,563
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -33.7% -40.0% 40% 40% +1.1%
≤30d 9 +4.7% -5.3% 56% 56% +16.1%
≤90d 63 -20.1% -27.8% 37% 37% -46.0%
all 66 -14.9% -23.0% 39% 39% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 39% -34.4%
10% -30.4% 39% -40.7%
15% -37.1% 39% -46.4%
20% -43.2% 39% -51.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 35% (≥$1,875) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,335 vs −$1,523 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

623d coverage
Net worth$475
Realized−$25,062
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses26 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)35%
Est. fees paid−$1,131
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage623d
Avg bet$1,433
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 50¢ 48¢ $500 $475 −$25 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: ROSE vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta Jun 25 $498 +$333 +67%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Jun 24 $349 −$341 -98%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $203 −$200 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $728 +$471 +65%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 3 Winner Jun 04 $295 +$349 +118%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $304 +$251 +82%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $231 −$226 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 28 $201 +$220 +109%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B May 02 $668 −$665 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 01 $3 −$3 -96%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 30 $1,902 −$1,884 -99%
Dota 2: 1win vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner Apr 30 $348 −$348 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 30 $188 −$188 -100%
Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffs Apr 30 $499 −$499 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $1,120 +$1,261 +113%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Division One (BO3) - VCL North Americ Apr 29 $598 +$800 +134%
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Apr 29 $597 +$492 +82%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Apr 29 $424 −$92 -22%
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Apr 29 $224 +$200 +89%
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Apr 28 $245 −$245 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Play Apr 28 $205 +$176 +86%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 25 $727 −$539 -74%
Boston Red Sox vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 24 $2,355 −$1,609 -68%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Apr 24 $1,786 −$1,334 -75%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $1,000 −$985 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $2,102 −$2,102 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 23 $4,054 −$4,054 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $1,560 −$1,560 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $1,880 +$2,052 +109%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 23 $2,160 −$2,158 -100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Apr 22 $1,000 +$1,139 +114%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $1,000 −$783 -78%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $1,150 −$1,150 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 22 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $900 −$900 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 22 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 22 $1,730 −$1,730 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $238 −$238 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $3,375 −$3,375 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $1,778 −$1,778 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Apr 22 $2,274 +$2,589 +114%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $1,875 +$1,536 +82%
Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Apr 20 $1,704 +$1,522 +89%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Apr 19 $2,350 +$2,566 +109%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Apr 19 $1,001 +$2,335 +233%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 18 $2,000 +$2,572 +129%
Barcelona Open: Tomas Machac vs Andrey Rublev Apr 17 $1,000 +$702 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 50¢ $508 1h
Valorant: ROSE vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta SELL Pigeons 100¢ $831 1h
Valorant: ROSE vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta BUY Pigeons 60¢ $363 4h
Valorant: ROSE vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta BUY Pigeons 57¢ $134 4h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North BUY Alliance Guardians 26¢ $91 7h
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North BUY Alliance Guardians 28¢ $258 9h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ BUY Yellow Submarine 21¢ $51 10h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 23h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 60¢ $728 27h
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Nemesis 100¢ $644 21d
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 45¢ $295 21d
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner SELL Estar Backs 100¢ $555 21d
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner BUY Estar Backs 54¢ $304 21d
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Aurora 40¢ $231 27d
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $201 28d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B BUY REKONIX 35¢ $38 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B BUY REKONIX 35¢ $45 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B BUY REKONIX 35¢ $13 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B BUY REKONIX 35¢ $49 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B BUY REKONIX 35¢ $13 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B BUY REKONIX 35¢ $2 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B BUY REKONIX 35¢ $42 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B BUY REKONIX 35¢ $2 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B BUY REKONIX 33¢ $7 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B BUY REKONIX 33¢ $61 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B BUY REKONIX 30¢ $4 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B BUY REKONIX 30¢ $4 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B BUY REKONIX 30¢ $137 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B BUY REKONIX 30¢ $2 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B BUY REKONIX 30¢ $112 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $475.00 · official $475.00 (match) · 233 history records