Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:09:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f29…738e world 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 475d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate40%36W / 55L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$28
14 days+$11
30 days+$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$17
sports 23% −$16
other 22% $0
politics 10% −$7
economics 1% +$2
crypto 1% +$1
weather 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.4% -12.6% 0% 0% -13.8%
≤30d 28 -4.0% -13.2% 32% 7% -9.1%
≤90d 42 -3.4% -12.6% 33% 5% -9.5%
all 91 -2.4% -11.7% 40% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 2% -9.6%
10% -20.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

475d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses36 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage475d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $204 −$14 -7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $141 −$15 -10%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $144 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $115 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $139 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $472 +$6 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $411 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $131 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $276 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 03 $289 +$32 +11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $3 −$1 -27%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $115 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $137 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 28 $106 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $207 −$1 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $107 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $113 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $300 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $203 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $46 +$9 +20%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $89 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $179 $0 -0%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $89 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $98 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 18 $90 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 18 $90 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $179 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $98 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $98 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $962 +$1 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $924 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $927 −$3 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $66 −$19 -29%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $942 +$2 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $1,035 +$1 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $109 −$4 -4%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $1,041 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $120 +$2 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $942 +$1 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $13 $0 -1%
Will 'How to Train Your Dragon' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2700 and $2800 on June 3? Jun 04 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jun 02 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? May 31 $9 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $46 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $59 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $21 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $84 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $34 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $24 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $6 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $16 42h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $1 42h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $33 43h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $67 43h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 24¢ $108 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $21 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $26 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $11 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $15 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $34 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $144 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $144 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $131 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $23 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $108 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $10 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 96¢ $114 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $115 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $10 9d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $10 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $123 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.20 · official $0.00 (match) · 312 history records