Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:55:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f29…c97f politics 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 199d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$21 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%2W / 85L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$293per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$8
sports 24% −$6
other 20% −$5
economics 4% −$1
world 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
all 87 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

199d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses2 / 85
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage199d
Avg bet$293
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 19 $268 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $268 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $537 $0 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $268 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $268 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $268 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $269 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $269 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $539 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 11 $269 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $268 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $540 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 10 $269 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $269 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 06 $269 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $269 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $269 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $532 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 29 $269 $0 +0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $270 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $270 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 22 $270 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 20 $541 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $271 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 17 $271 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 15 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $535 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Mar 13 $271 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 11 $271 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 09 $271 $0 -0%
Will The Secret Agent win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 08 $543 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $255 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $256 $0 -0%
Will the San Jose Sharks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 04 $266 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 04 $264 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 03 $259 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 02 $262 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 28 $262 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Feb 27 $265 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 25 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 07 $263 −$1 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Feb 07 $266 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 06 $264 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 06 $260 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 04 $265 $0 -0%
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? Feb 01 $264 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $263 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 31 $269 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 30 $265 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $265 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $267 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $268 12h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $268 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $268 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $268 11d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $268 12d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $268 17d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $268 19d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $268 23d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $268 24d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $268 29d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $268 30d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $268 31d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $269 32d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $269 32d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $269 33d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $269 36d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $269 37d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $269 39d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 40d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $211 40d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $268 42d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 43d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $81 43d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 43d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $76 43d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $269 60d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 64d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 64d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $99 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 325 history records