Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:42:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f29…935e
other · 11 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$2 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$12
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)2 / 11
History coverage9d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%
Chart Positions 9 History 2 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 66¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 68¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 38¢ 10¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-75%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 62¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% −$1
sports 25% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 16h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 86¢ $1 25h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 17¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -42.3% -47.8% 50% 50% -47.7%
≤30d 2 -42.3% -47.8% 50% 50% -47.7%
≤90d 2 -42.3% -47.8% 50% 50% -47.7%
all 2 -42.3% -47.8% 50% 50% -47.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.8% 50% -47.7%
10% -52.8% 0% -52.7%
15% -57.4% 0% -57.3%
20% -61.5% 0% -61.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.37 · official $12.37 (match) · 13 history records