Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f27…1015 other 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 216L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$22
14 days−$28
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$35
sports 22% −$16
politics 9% −$6
economics 6% −$13
culture 6% −$6
crypto 4% −$3
world 4% −$1
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 174 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 231 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 216
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)231 / 232
History coverage127d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $160 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $436 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $352 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $384 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $216 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $321 −$2 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $331 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $262 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $243 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $207 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $207 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $269 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $666 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $81 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $461 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $515 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $230 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $109 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $322 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 13 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $892 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $844 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $498 −$2 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $341 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $163 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $190 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $110 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $501 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $269 $0 +0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $314 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $197 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $161 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $319 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $241 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $137 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $49 3m
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $49 5m
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 3h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 4h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $49 6h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $49 7h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 10h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 12h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 12h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 14h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 16h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 18h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $50 18h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $50 20h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 21h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 22h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 28h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 29h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 30h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 31h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 34h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 35h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 41h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 43h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 43h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 45h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 47h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.05 · official $49.05 (match) · 1332 history records