Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f25…2318 other 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$84 (-5%) realized −$124 · open +$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate23%14W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$182
14 days+$182
30 days+$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$166
sports 44% −$203
crypto 4% −$38
economics 2% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +180.1% +153.4% 58% 58% +18.3%
≤30d 12 +180.1% +153.4% 58% 58% +18.3%
≤90d 39 +1.9% -7.8% 21% 21% -27.8%
all 62 +2.9% -6.9% 23% 21% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 21% -17.9%
10% -15.8% 18% -25.8%
15% -24.0% 16% -33.0%
20% -31.4% 13% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$11 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$232
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$40
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses14 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)62 / 66
History coverage197d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $51 $83 +$32 (+63%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 39¢ 46¢ $40 $47 +$7 (+17%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -78%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$30 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $175 +$36 +21%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $141 +$44 +32%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $97 +$44 +46%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$69 +226%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$27 -55%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 +$40 +442%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 −$41 -82%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$16 +1519%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $9 −$8 -98%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $31 $0 -2%
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $17 +$15 +86%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs TheMongolz (BO3) Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Apr 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Passion UA (BO3) Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs BIG (BO3) Apr 29 $136 −$136 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO1) Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC 323: Ziam vs. Sadykhov (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Apr 29 $88 −$88 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TheMongolz (BO1) Apr 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Lighter dip to $2 before 2027? Apr 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026 Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 December 29-January 4? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Apr 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Mavericks vs. Kings Apr 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Apr 29 $41 −$34 -83%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Apr 29 $25 −$11 -45%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 29 $31 −$13 -43%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $3 $0 -12%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $3 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $1 $0 -40%
Will Bitcoin reach $94,000 December 29-January 4? Jan 04 $11 −$9 -83%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Dec 29 $2 $0 +21%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 29 $5 $0 -3%
No airdrop in 2025? Dec 27 $10 −$1 -7%
UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Buchecha (Heavyweight, Main Card) Dec 14 $148 +$7 +5%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 -7%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 -10%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 -10%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 -15%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 14 $2 $0 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 10m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 24m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 20h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $211 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $124 21h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $97 4d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $22 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 34¢ $22 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 74¢ $49 5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $17 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $34 6d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $37 7d
Will CA Paranaense win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 41d
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C BUY Waldo Cortes-Acosta 43¢ $20 42d
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.98 · official $231.98 (match) · 180 history records