Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2F 0x2f22…5f72 other 455 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate90%407W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$52
14 days−$43
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$14
sports 30% +$36
crypto 13% −$91
world 10% +$22
finance 5% −$24
politics 2% +$2
culture 1% +$31
weather 0% +$1
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -6.6% -15.5% 83% 11% -19.2%
≤30d 34 -5.7% -14.7% 85% 9% -17.2%
≤90d 451 +0.5% -9.1% 90% 22% -10.0%
all 451 +0.5% -9.1% 90% 22% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 22% -10.0%
10% -17.8% 1% -18.6%
15% -25.7% 1% -26.5%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$14 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses407 / 44
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)451 / 455
History coverage87d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 451 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? No 93¢ 94¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $30 +$3 +10%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 20 $30 +$3 +8%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$3 +8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$3 +10%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $30 +$2 +7%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +21%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $30 +$3 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $30 +$3 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $30 +$3 +8%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $30 +$3 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $30 +$2 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $30 +$3 +10%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $30 +$2 +6%
Chile leading at halftime? Jun 06 $30 +$2 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $30 +$3 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $30 +$3 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 29 $30 +$2 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 28 $30 +$3 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 24 $30 +$2 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $30 +$3 +10%
Exact Score: Chelsea FC 2 - 0 Tottenham Hotspur FC? May 19 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $30 +$3 +9%
Will FC Nordsjælland win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 +$2 +8%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 +$3 +9%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 17 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $30 +$3 +8%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $30 +$3 +8%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 14? May 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will CA Nacional Potosí win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $30 +$3 +10%
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 1 - 0 Crystal Palace FC? May 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 13? May 13 $30 +$2 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $30 +$2 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 13? May 13 $30 +$3 +9%
Exact Score: Villarreal CF 1 - 0 Sevilla FC? May 13 $30 +$3 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 93¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Sweden? BUY No 91¢ $30 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? BUY No 92¢ $30 18h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 91¢ $30 44h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 92¢ $30 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first? BUY No 91¢ $30 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $30 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 92¢ $30 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY No 91¢ $30 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY No 93¢ $30 4d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY No 91¢ $30 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 99¢ $33 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $30 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 94¢ $30 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 91¢ $30 6d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY No 92¢ $30 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 7d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? SELL No 100¢ $33 9d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? BUY No 91¢ $30 9d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? SELL No 100¢ $32 9d
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? BUY No 93¢ $30 10d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 13d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Gabriel Bonfim 94¢ $30 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.80 · official $45.68 · 966 history records