Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:28:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2f21…8af5 sports 124 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$506 (+17%) realized +$525 · open −$19
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%62W / 55L
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$239
14 days+$209
30 days+$496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$479
other 15% −$17
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +11.7% +1.1% 52% 52% +14.5%
≤30d 117 +10.4% -0.2% 53% 53% +7.0%
≤90d 117 +10.4% -0.2% 53% 53% +7.0%
all 117 +10.4% -0.2% 53% 53% +7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.2% 53% +7.0%
10% -9.7% 53% -3.2%
15% -18.4% 52% -12.6%
20% -26.4% 45% -21.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$19 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized+$525
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses62 / 55
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions7
Markets (closed)117 / 124
History coverage19d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 79¢ 65¢ $35 $29 −$6 (-18%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 62¢ 44¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 34¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-30%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? No 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$13 +83%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $15 +$14 +90%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $20 +$18 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$16 +105%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$12 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $15 +$10 +67%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $10 +$8 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $20 +$18 +90%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$17 +83%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$1 -7%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$15 -73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 +$10 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 +$13 +65%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$15 +152%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 +$18 +172%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$22 +109%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $20 +$24 +119%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $20 −$2 -7%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $28 +$72 +262%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $20 −$3 -13%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$15 +150%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 +$9 +86%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$19 +93%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $87 +$106 +122%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$24 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $51 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 14¢ $10 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $25 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $15 21h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $15 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $15 35h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 35h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 35h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 2d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $15 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 59¢ $9 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $15 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $10 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $20 3d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 13¢ $6 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 38¢ $20 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $20 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 32¢ $9 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.98 · official $160.98 (match) · 209 history records