Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:18:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
2F 0x2f1f…aa39 sports 1123 markets active 0h ago coverage 123d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 122d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$22,459 (-5%) realized −$22,301 · open −$158
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate66%741W / 380L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$399per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Fees−$3,284est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$476
7 days+$578
14 days+$648
30 days+$357
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$13,646
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +4.0% -5.9% 72% 60% -6.7%
≤30d 151 -2.4% -11.7% 68% 50% -8.1%
≤90d 888 -3.9% -13.0% 66% 57% -11.9%
all 1121 -1.5% -10.9% 66% 57% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 57% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 44% -20.2%
15% -27.2% 32% -27.9%
20% -34.3% 21% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$504) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$328 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$22,301
Unrealized−$158
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses741 / 380
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$3,284
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1121 / 1123
History coverage123d ⚠
Avg bet$399
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 70¢ 72¢ $94 $96 +$2 (+2%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ 0¢ $160 $0 −$160 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 260 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $276 −$107 -39%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $185 +$18 +10%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $110 +$68 +62%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $865 −$567 -66%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $956 −$946 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,169 −$325 -28%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $342 +$68 +20%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $85 +$48 +56%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $910 +$840 +92%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $424 −$424 -100%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $1,095 +$671 +61%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $490 +$178 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $330 +$137 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $307 +$133 +43%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $309 +$26 +8%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $83 +$12 +14%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $693 +$330 +48%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $516 +$70 +14%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $458 +$241 +52%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $223 +$244 +109%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $115 −$113 -99%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $159 −$157 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $153 +$9 +6%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $133 +$17 +13%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $112 +$22 +20%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $428 −$424 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $361 +$39 +11%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $306 −$303 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $316 +$20 +6%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $247 +$63 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $392 +$126 +32%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $382 +$99 +26%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $535 +$245 +46%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $281 +$261 +93%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $442 −$435 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $290 +$404 +139%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $216 +$94 +43%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $188 +$35 +18%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $121 +$68 +56%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $56 −$55 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $29 +$26 +89%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $28 +$2 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $14 +$11 +82%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $11 +$5 +48%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $18 +$2 +10%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $79 −$78 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $181 −$43 -24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $223 −$220 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 70¢ $95 27m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $97 47m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 77¢ $75 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 23¢ $72 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 62¢ $201 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $204 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 91¢ $2 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 91¢ $23 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne BUY KT Rolster Challengers 91¢ $160 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $179 2h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $110 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 56¢ $162 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $160 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 86¢ $138 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 12¢ $13 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 12¢ $12 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 12¢ $23 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 12¢ $46 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 12¢ $30 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 Academy 12¢ $14 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $230 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $378 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $85 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $34 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 62¢ $956 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 28¢ $332 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $564 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $5 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $103 7h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $4 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.31 · official $96.31 (match) · 3500 history records