Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

2F 0x2f1d…a237 other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$19 (+7%) realized +$18 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip

Net edge+40%after slip

Net WR67%break-even

Win rate67%2W / 1L

Drawdown59%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day1.7pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +67%

net ROI/market (all)+40.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+54.8%	+40.1%	67%	67%	+40.9%
≤30d	3	+54.8%	+40.1%	67%	67%	+40.9%
≤90d	3	+54.8%	+40.1%	67%	67%	+40.9%
all	3	+54.8%	+40.1%	67%	67%	+40.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+40.1%	67%	+40.9%
10%	+26.7%	67%	+27.4%
15%	+14.4%	67%	+15.1%
20%	+3.2%	67%	+3.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +56% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +55% · $-wt +56% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$67 vs −$50 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$51

Realized+$18

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)67%

Wins / losses2 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage5d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day1.7

Drawdown59%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	32¢	32¢	$50	$51	+$1 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$50	+$67	+133%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$52	+$68	+131%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$51	−$50	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	32¢	$51	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY	42¢	$50	16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-	BUY	53¢	$51	43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	92¢	$120	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	39¢	$10	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	39¢	$41	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	39¢	$1	2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	11¢	$51	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.78 · official $50.78 (match) · 9 history records