Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
2F 0x2f1b…2cf9 world 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 189d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$398 (+15%) realized +$500 · open −$102
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$577now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$189
7 days−$189
14 days−$189
30 days−$189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$119
politics 21% +$111
crypto 11% +$87
tech 4% −$23
finance 2% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+22.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -36.4% -42.4% 0% 0% -51.7%
≤30d 3 -36.4% -42.4% 0% 0% -51.7%
≤90d 9 +29.2% +16.9% 44% 44% +6.3%
all 12 +35.1% +22.3% 58% 50% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.3% 50% +12.8%
10% +10.6% 50% +2.0%
15% -0.1% 42% -7.9%
20% -9.9% 42% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$125 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$577
Realized+$500
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage189d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 67¢ 98¢ $391 $574 +$182 (+46%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Yes 64¢ $288 $4 −$284 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 15 $212 −$153 -72%
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Jun 15 $100 −$23 -23%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $95 −$13 -14%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? May 12 $284 +$499 +176%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 04 $378 −$378 -100%
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? Apr 06 $78 +$140 +179%
Will Trump say "Paid a big price" or "Paying a big price" this week? ( Apr 02 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Apr 02 $59 +$86 +148%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 26 $235 +$162 +69%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $104 +$132 +127%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Jan 02 $70 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $285 +$87 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 11¢ $58 53m
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? SELL Yes 51¢ $77 54m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 23¢ $82 54m
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 25¢ $95 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 64¢ $290 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 67¢ $399 7d
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $95 63d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $95 64d
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 36¢ $189 66d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? BUY No 21¢ $378 66d
Will Trump say "Paid a big price" or "Paying a big price" this week? ( BUY Yes 24¢ $59 82d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 54¢ $117 82d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? BUY Yes 40¢ $59 82d
Houthi military action against Israel by April 15, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $78 83d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $235 158d
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $104 158d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 68¢ $236 180d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL Yes 32¢ $25 180d
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $70 187d
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? BUY Yes 65¢ $100 188d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 63¢ $49 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $577.35 · official $577.35 (match) · 42 history records