Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:47:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
2F 0x2f1a…f634 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$358 (+11%) realized +$361 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$397now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$244
sports 6% +$173
crypto 3% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +11.7% +1.1% 52% 48% +0.5%
≤30d 29 +11.7% +1.1% 52% 48% +0.5%
≤90d 29 +11.7% +1.1% 52% 48% +0.5%
all 29 +11.7% +1.1% 52% 48% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 48% +0.5%
10% -8.6% 38% -9.2%
15% -17.4% 31% -17.9%
20% -25.5% 28% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$48 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$397
Realized+$361
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage5d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $400 $397 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $272 +$37 +14%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -53%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$5 +26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $231 +$57 +24%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $30 +$28 +92%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $160 −$96 -60%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $105 −$80 -76%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $69 +$52 +76%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $46 −$15 -33%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $69 −$65 -94%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 +$119 +78%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $49 +$108 +221%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +22%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $303 +$168 +55%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 +$84 +272%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$27 -89%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -95%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $205 −$20 -10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $154 −$8 -6%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $227 +$244 +107%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $154 −$9 -6%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $25 +$4 +15%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $141 −$72 -51%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $45 +$71 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $403 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $152 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 90¢ $55 5h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL No 100¢ $25 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $190 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $90 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $90 10h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 10h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $20 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $17 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $14 27h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 67¢ $50 30h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $50 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $25 30h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $121 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 49¢ $25 31h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $48 31h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $48 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $397.37 · official $397.37 (match) · 87 history records