Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f1a…99ea weather 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$164 (+70%) realized +$172 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day45.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+58.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +75.5% +58.7% 50% 50% +136.6%
≤30d 4 +75.5% +58.7% 50% 50% +136.6%
≤90d 4 +75.5% +58.7% 50% 50% +136.6%
all 4 +75.5% +58.7% 50% 50% +136.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +58.7% 50% +136.6%
10% ← realistic here +43.6% 50% +113.9%
15% +29.7% 50% +93.3%
20% +17.0% 50% +74.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +162% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +75% · $-wt +162% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
6.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$9 · ×8.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.66 per $1 lost it wins $8.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized+$172
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions6
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day45.2
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 21? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $39 $75 +$37 (+95%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $50 $54 +$4 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$23 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 21? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $42 +$142 +340%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 21 $15 +$9 +60%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 20 $24 −$17 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? SELL Yes 100¢ $183 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 21? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 44¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 44¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 39¢ $4 7h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 39¢ $13 7h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY Yes 66¢ $16 9h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY Yes 67¢ $16 9h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? BUY Yes 67¢ $18 9h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 21? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 21? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.50 · official $136.50 (match) · 77 history records