Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f18…b992 sports 189 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%24W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$2
politics 26% −$5
other 24% −$8
crypto 8% $0
world 5% −$2
economics 4% $0
finance 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 45 -0.1% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.6%
all 188 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses24 / 164
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)188 / 189
History coverage169d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $79 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $152 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 18 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 12 $176 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 11 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 11 $90 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $94 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $89 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $41 $0 -1%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $105 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $66 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $206 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $44 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 08 $37 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 07 $165 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $37 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $173 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 01 $92 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 31 $84 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Mar 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 31 $154 +$1 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? Mar 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $287 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 30 $112 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 30 $121 +$1 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 29 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 29 $37 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 29 $138 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 29 $49 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 29 $234 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 29 $147 −$1 -1%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $48 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $235 $0 -0%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 28 $45 $0 +0%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 28 $42 $0 +1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $96 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 26 $49 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 26 $50 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 26 $177 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 25 $99 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 24 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 24 $43 $0 +1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 23 $96 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $44 1h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $35 7d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $36 7d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $38 15d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $39 15d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $43 23d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $43 23d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 36d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 37d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $45 73d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $45 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 73d
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? SELL No 97¢ $41 73d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? BUY No 97¢ $41 74d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $48 74d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $48 74d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 95¢ $45 74d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $45 74d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $40 74d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $40 74d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 94¢ $41 74d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 95¢ $41 75d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 96¢ $37 75d
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 96¢ $37 75d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $43 75d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $43 75d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $47 75d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $47 75d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $37 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.17 · official $44.17 (match) · 709 history records