trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.2% | -9.4% | 25% | 0% | -9.4% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 33% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -0.6% | -10.1% | 33% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 24 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 58% | 4% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.7% | 4% | -9.3% |
| 10% | -17.5% | 0% | -18.0% |
| 15% | -25.4% | 0% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -32.7% | 0% | -33.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Yes | 35¢ | 34¢ | $27 | $27 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? | Jun 25 | $32 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 24 | $60 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | Jun 24 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | Jun 23 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? | Jun 13 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra | Jun 13 | $8 | $0 | -5% |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $31 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | Jun 11 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 09 | $23 | −$1 | -3% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 16 | $1 | $0 | -8% |
| Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 | Dec 12 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? | Dec 12 | $8 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Tommy Paul win the 2025 French Open? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? | May 06 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? | Apr 20 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? | Apr 19 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? | Apr 01 | $13 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 30 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 29 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. before April? | Mar 24 | $1 | $0 | +22% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? | Mar 23 | $14 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $13 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 16 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Ripple above $2.45 on March 14? | Mar 15 | $13 | $0 | +1% |