Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:38:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2F
0x2f15…23a9
crypto · 1559 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$965 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$402 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$402
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1410 / 147
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1557 / 1559
History coverage24d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day90.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 2 History 1557 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days−$40
14 days−$464
30 days−$402
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 60¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$1 (-16%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$4 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$5 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$4 +61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +67%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$4 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$4 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$4 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$405
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 7m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 42m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 51m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 318 -0.8% -10.2% 84% 35% -11.9%
≤30d 1557 -0.1% -9.6% 91% 20% -11.3%
≤90d 1557 -0.1% -9.6% 91% 20% -11.3%
all 1557 -0.1% -9.6% 91% 20% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover90.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 20% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 5% -19.8%
15% -26.1% 3% -27.6%
20% -33.4% 3% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.78 · official $2.86 (match) · 3500 history records