Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:40:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
2F 0x2f11…752a crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate57%30W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$4
world 24% −$1
other 13% −$31
crypto 5% −$24
sports 1% +$2
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -6.1% -15.0% 0% 0% -15.0%
≤30d 1 -6.1% -15.0% 0% 0% -15.0%
≤90d 2 -3.1% -12.3% 0% 0% -14.9%
all 53 -6.9% -15.8% 57% 11% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 11% -10.4%
10% -23.8% 11% -19.0%
15% -31.2% 11% -26.8%
20% -37.9% 9% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses30 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage590d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $615 −$38 -6%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? Feb 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $21 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 23 $24 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Feb 21 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $1 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 27? Jan 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 Jan 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 22? Jan 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 Jan 26 $15 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 12-18? Jan 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 12-18? Jan 19 $14 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 5-11? Jan 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? Jan 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 03 $14 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jan 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $100,000 on December 19? Dec 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $90 on December 19? Dec 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 10? Dec 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Dec 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Dec 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 23? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 18? Nov 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on November 18? Nov 18 $12 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - November 5, 3AM ET Nov 05 $5 +$5 +96%
Solana Up or Down - November 5, 3AM ET Nov 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 5, 3AM ET Nov 05 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 5, 2AM ET Nov 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 5, 2AM ET Nov 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 30 $3,515 −$4 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 25 $1,513 −$2 -0%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 25 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $7 $0 -1%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? Mar 22 $8 $0 -1%
Maple Leafs vs. Rangers Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Avalanche vs. Senators Mar 21 $1 +$1 +89%
No Data Reported in 2025? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 7? Mar 07 $10 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Feb 05 $1 +$1 +100%
Panthers vs. Capitals Feb 05 $1 +$1 +108%
Mavericks vs. 76ers Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Ansem vs. Bitboy - Crypto Fight Night Dec 06 $8 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin above $98,000 on December 6? Dec 06 $24 +$24 +100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in November? Dec 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $42 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $45 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $535 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $570 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 77d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 77d
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? SELL No 100¢ $24 125d
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? BUY No 100¢ $24 125d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 125d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $21 125d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa SELL No 99¢ $26 125d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa BUY No 99¢ $26 125d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $24 125d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $24 125d
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $24 127d
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $24 127d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 127d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 127d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $14 152d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 152d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026 BUY No 95¢ $15 158d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 22? BUY No 100¢ $14 158d
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 January 12-18? BUY No 100¢ $14 164d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 January 12-18? BUY No 100¢ $13 164d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 167d
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 167d
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $14 171d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 171d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec BUY No 100¢ $15 187d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $14 187d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 108 history records