Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:09:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2f0e…d1e4 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4 (+4%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate68%15W / 7L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +0.7% -8.9% 67% 67% -8.0%
≤30d 22 +1.2% -8.4% 68% 68% -7.6%
≤90d 22 +1.2% -8.4% 68% 68% -7.6%
all 22 +1.2% -8.4% 68% 68% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 68% -7.6%
10% -17.2% 64% -16.4%
15% -25.2% 64% -24.5%
20% -32.5% 23% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses15 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage9d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$3 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 40 history records