trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $3 | −$3 | -98% |
| Will Dominican Republic make the 2026 World Baseball Classic final? | Mar 15 | $52 | −$52 | -100% |
| Final Stage: Italy vs. Puerto Rico | Mar 15 | $25 | +$23 | +92% |
| Final Stage: Japan vs. Venezuela | Mar 15 | $30 | −$26 | -87% |
| Final Stage: Dominican Rep. vs. USA | Mar 14 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs | Feb 20 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |
| Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? | Feb 09 | $110 | −$49 | -45% |
| Will "DtMF" be played last at the Super Bowl halftime show? | Feb 09 | $35 | −$35 | -100% |
| Will Lady Gaga perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Feb 09 | $204 | −$104 | -51% |
| Will "MONACO" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? | Feb 07 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho | Feb 07 | $184 | −$184 | -100% |
| Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? | Feb 03 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? | Feb 03 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sh | Feb 03 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Super Bowl LX have between 128M and 132M viewers? | Feb 03 | $21 | +$4 | +20% |
| US government shutdown Saturday? | Jan 30 | $325 | +$20 | +6% |
| Will Kanye release BULLY by January 30? | Jan 28 | $50 | −$28 | -57% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤90d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| all | 17 | -65.9% | -69.2% | 18% | 12% | -57.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -69.2% | 12% | -57.0% |
| 10% | -72.1% | 6% | -61.1% |
| 15% | -74.8% | 6% | -64.9% |
| 20% | -77.3% | 6% | -68.3% |