Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:56:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
2F 0x2f0d…e6ba other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$316 (-11%) realized −$316 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$29
sports 30% −$373
other 25% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -17.3% -25.2% 29% 14% -19.1%
≤30d 7 -17.3% -25.2% 29% 14% -19.1%
≤90d 7 -17.3% -25.2% 29% 14% -19.1%
all 14 -3.3% -12.5% 43% 29% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 29% -19.5%
10% -20.8% 21% -27.2%
15% -28.5% 14% -34.3%
20% -35.5% 7% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$55 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$316
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage202d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$9 -31%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$3 -35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 09 $1,327 −$29 -2%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-09? Dec 09 $20 +$25 +127%
Warriors vs. Bulls Dec 08 $117 +$23 +20%
Will Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo end in a draw? Dec 08 $380 −$380 -100%
Bears vs. Packers Dec 08 $371 −$7 -2%
Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $100 +$24 +24%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-12-07? Dec 07 $442 +$38 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 59m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 34¢ $21 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 55¢ $101 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 45h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 45h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 45¢ $7 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 4d
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? SELL Yes $9 193d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-09? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 193d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2025-12-09? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 193d
Warriors vs. Bulls SELL Warriors 100¢ $140 194d
Warriors vs. Bulls BUY Warriors 95¢ $47 194d
Warriors vs. Bulls BUY Warriors 77¢ $70 194d
Bears vs. Packers SELL Packers 72¢ $117 194d
Bears vs. Packers BUY Packers 70¢ $113 194d
Bears vs. Packers SELL Packers 63¢ $113 194d
Bears vs. Packers BUY Packers 75¢ $133 194d
Bears vs. Packers SELL Packers 83¢ $133 194d
Bears vs. Packers BUY Packers 76¢ $124 194d
Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-12-07? SELL Yes 99¢ $124 195d
Will Real Madrid vs. Celta Vigo end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $380 195d
Will Celta Vigo win on 2025-12-07? BUY Yes 80¢ $100 195d
Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-12-07? SELL Yes 100¢ $480 195d
Will Botafogo FR win on 2025-12-07? BUY Yes 92¢ $442 195d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records